That Steam Wishlist Button Matters More (and Less) Than You Think
For PC gamers, the Steam Wishlist is a sacred space. It’s a curated list of future hopes and dreams, a digital home for all the games we plan to play… eventually. For game developers, it’s one of the most important metrics there is – a tangible measure of interest that can help predict a game’s launch success. But how often does a ‘wish’ actually turn into a purchase? A new, comprehensive study from game industry research agency GameDiscoverCo has pulled back the curtain, and the data is eye-opening.
The study analyzed games released between September 2024 and September 2025 with over 25,000 wishlists, revealing which factors truly move the needle. The findings show that while wishlists are important, their value can change dramatically depending on genre, reviews, and even how long a game is available for pre-order.
The Magic Number: What’s a ‘Good’ Conversion Rate?
Let’s get straight to the big question: what percentage of wishlists become sales? According to the study, the median conversion rate in a game’s first week is about 0.15. In simple terms, for every 100 wishlists, a typical game can expect to sell about 15 copies. However, this is just the middle ground. The real story is in the details.
Some games wildly outperform this average. Viral hits, especially in the online co-op genre, showed incredibly strong conversion rates. Titles like the mountain-climbing game PEAK and the voice-controlled spellcaster Mage Arena converted a huge portion of their wishlists because the fun is in playing with friends, creating a powerful incentive to buy on day one. On the other hand, games with a high price tag (over $10) saw their conversion rate drop closer to 0.10, showing that players are more hesitant to commit to a wishlisted game when the cost is higher.
Genre is Everything (Especially if it’s NSFW)
The study found that genre plays a massive role in how likely someone is to buy a wishlisted game. Some of the highest conversion rates were found in a few surprising categories:
- Online Co-op & Viral Hits: Games that are more fun with friends create a sense of urgency to buy.
- Immersive First-Person Horror: The intense, personal experience seems to drive players to purchase.
- Cozy & Casual Puzzles: Relaxing, accessible games often convert well with their intended audience.
However, the biggest statistical outlier was NSFW (adult-themed) games. This genre showed an unusually high conversion rate, suggesting that its audience is smaller but highly committed. When they wishlist a game, they are very likely to buy it.
On the flip side, some genres struggled. Visual novels, complex political strategy games, and niche pixel-art RPGs often attracted a lot of wishlists from curious players who ultimately didn’t make a purchase, leading to lower conversion rates.
The Power of a ‘Very Positive’ Review Score
Here’s a finding that won’t surprise anyone: reviews matter. A lot. The study found a direct and powerful link between a game’s user review score and its sales conversion. The top 20 games with the highest wishlist-to-sales conversion rates had an average first-week Steam user score of 91% (Overwhelmingly Positive). In stark contrast, the bottom 20 games with the worst conversion rates averaged just 67% (Mixed).
This shows that many players use wishlists to track games they’re interested in, but they wait until the reviews are in before they commit their money. A ‘Mixed’ or ‘Negative’ reception at launch can be a death sentence for a game’s sales, no matter how many wishlists it had.
FAQs About the Steam Wishlist Study
- What is a typical wishlist-to-sales conversion rate on Steam?
The median rate is about 0.15, meaning 15 sales for every 100 wishlists in the first week. - Do more wishlists always mean more sales?
Not necessarily. While it’s a good indicator of interest, factors like price, genre, and especially post-launch reviews have a huge impact on whether those wishlists convert. - Which game genres convert wishlists to sales the best?
Online co-op games, immersive horror, and cozy puzzle games tend to do well. NSFW adult games are a major outlier with very high conversion rates. - How important are Steam reviews for a game’s launch?
Extremely important. The study showed a massive difference in sales between games with ‘Overwhelmingly Positive’ reviews and those with ‘Mixed’ reviews. - Does the timing of a game’s release matter?
The study found that a game’s genre was a bigger factor than the month it was released. However, it did note that games with shorter pre-release windows (around 7 months) tended to convert better than those with very long ones (over a year). - Is the wishlist-to-sales ratio declining over time?
No, the study found no evidence that the ratio has declined since 2022. However, with more games being released on Steam than ever, the competition for players’ attention and money is much more intense.
Conclusion
This deep dive into Steam’s data paints a clear picture: a wishlist is not a promise to buy, but a ticket to the starting line. Getting on a player’s wishlist is the first crucial step, but converting that interest into a sale requires delivering a high-quality game that earns positive reviews and resonates with its target audience. For gamers, it’s a good reminder that your review, whether positive or negative, has a real, measurable impact on a developer’s success. And for developers, the message is clear: make a great game, and the sales will follow. But maybe make it a co-op horror game, just to be safe.