Destiny 2 is bleeding players at an alarming rate. Steam concurrent numbers dropped over 80 percent since Edge of Fate launched, hitting lows not seen since the game came to PC in 2019. Just when things looked bleakest, a credible Bungie leaker dropped a bombshell: Destiny 3 is in extremely early development. The question is whether this news comes too late to save the franchise.
Colony Deaks, a Destiny leaker and dataminer with a proven track record, posted on X on November 25, 2025 that Destiny 3 has entered extremely early development at Bungie. They claim to have been sitting on this information for weeks but decided to go public after another account posted similar rumors. Colony Deaks has accurately leaked Destiny and Marathon information before, giving their claims weight in the community.
The Numbers Tell a Brutal Story
Destiny 2’s player count collapse isn’t just bad. It’s catastrophic. Edge of Fate launched in June 2025 with a peak of 98,211 concurrent players on Steam. Compare that to The Final Shape’s 314,634 peak just months earlier, or Lightfall’s 316,750, or The Witch Queen’s 290,112. The difference is staggering.
Within months of Edge of Fate’s release, the average concurrent player count on Steam dropped to around 18,439 over a 30-day period. That’s the lowest it’s been since Destiny 2 arrived on Steam in 2019, below even the dark days of Curse of Osiris when Bungie reportedly said the game was weeks from shutting down. During non-peak hours in October 2025, the game dropped below 8,000 concurrent players.
The Ash and Iron update in November briefly pushed numbers to 54,000, but within a week they crashed back to 23,000. That represents a 50 percent drop in baseline player engagement compared to the post-Final Shape era. The new normal for Destiny 2 is half of what it used to be, and there’s no sign the bleeding will stop.
What Went Wrong With Edge of Fate
The Final Shape concluded the ten-year Light and Darkness saga in June 2024, giving fans the closure they’d been waiting for since Destiny 1 launched in 2014. It was emotional, satisfying, and critically acclaimed. Then Bungie kicked off the new Fate saga with Edge of Fate, and players hated it.
Edge of Fate introduced the Portal system, which replaced the seasonal model fans had grown accustomed to. Content was thinner, the grind felt more punishing, and the story didn’t capture the magic of The Final Shape. Players who stuck around just to see the Light and Darkness saga conclude felt no reason to continue. Those who left after The Final Shape never came back.
Bungie also made controversial changes to progression systems and monetization that alienated long-time players. The studio laid off 17 percent of its workforce in August 2024, and many veteran developers left voluntarily. That brain drain shows in the game’s current state. Edge of Fate feels like it was made by a skeleton crew working under impossible conditions.
Destiny 3 Could Be a PS6 Launch Title
If Colony Deaks is correct and Destiny 3 just entered extremely early development, a realistic launch window would be 2029 or 2030. That timing lines up perfectly with the PlayStation 6, which industry analysts expect to release around 2028 or 2029.
Push Square noted that Destiny 3 could become a tentpole title for PS6, giving Sony a major exclusive to push console sales. Sony acquired Bungie for 3.6 billion dollars specifically for their live-service expertise and the Destiny franchise. After Concord flopped spectacularly and Marathon faces skepticism following harsh alpha feedback, Sony needs Destiny 3 to succeed.
The challenge is keeping Destiny 2 alive and profitable for another four or five years while Destiny 3 is in development. With player numbers at historic lows and engagement dropping month after month, that’s a tall order. Bungie recently pushed the full Destiny 2 roadmap and State of the Game into 2026, saying it needs more time to finalize long-term plans. That delay makes sense if Destiny 3 is real and Bungie needs to figure out how both games fit into the franchise’s future.
What Colony Deaks Actually Said
Colony Deaks was careful with their wording. They said Destiny 3 is in extremely early development, which means concept work, engine decisions, and high-level design discussions. It doesn’t mean there’s a playable build or that significant resources have been allocated yet. Projects in this phase can change direction, get rebooted, or be canceled entirely.
They also said they’ll share more information in the coming months as things develop on a larger scale. That suggests they’re hearing things from inside Bungie or from sources close to the studio, and those sources expect the project to grow. But it also means we won’t get official confirmation or concrete details anytime soon.
Bungie has not commented on the leak, and they probably won’t. The studio is still focused on Marathon, which is scheduled to release before March 31, 2026. Destiny 2 continues with the Fate saga and Year of Prophecy. Officially acknowledging Destiny 3 this early would risk cannibalizing Destiny 2’s remaining player base and damaging Marathon’s launch.
Will Gear Transfer This Time?
One of the biggest complaints when Destiny 2 launched in 2017 was that nothing carried over from Destiny 1 except character appearance. Players lost their weapons, armor, progress, and achievements. It was a disaster that damaged trust and made players question why they should invest time in the sequel if Bungie would just erase everything again.
Previous leaks from earlier in 2024 suggested Destiny 2 items might carry over into Destiny 3. If that’s true, it would be a massive change from Bungie’s previous approach. Letting players keep their gear would maintain investment and ease the transition between games. It would also create technical challenges, balancing issues, and design constraints that Bungie would need to solve.
Another earlier leak claimed Destiny 3 would allow Guardians to mix abilities from different subclasses. Interestingly, Destiny 2 added Prism subclasses that do exactly that, suggesting some Destiny 3 concepts are being tested in the current game. That’s smart development strategy if Destiny 3 is real.
The Marathon Problem
Bungie’s extraction shooter Marathon is scheduled to release before March 31, 2026, and it’s currently the studio’s main focus. The game has faced troubled development, including an indefinite delay after the April closed alpha received harsh criticism. Sony stepped in to reaffirm commitment to a 2026 release, but confidence is shaky.
If Marathon flops, the pressure on Destiny 3 to deliver will be enormous. Sony spent 3.6 billion dollars on Bungie, and they need returns on that investment. Concord already failed spectacularly. Destiny 2 is circling the drain. Marathon is Bungie’s last chance to prove they can still create successful live-service games before Destiny 3 arrives years from now.
Managing three major projects at once while dealing with layoffs, staff attrition, and community frustration is a massive undertaking. Something has to give. Either Destiny 2 support gets reduced even further, Marathon launches in rough shape, or Destiny 3 gets delayed beyond 2030. Bungie doesn’t have infinite resources, and the studio is stretched thin.
FAQs
Is Destiny 3 officially confirmed by Bungie?
No, Bungie has not officially confirmed Destiny 3. The information comes from Colony Deaks, a credible Destiny leaker with a proven track record for accurate Destiny and Marathon information. Bungie has not commented on the leak.
When will Destiny 3 be released?
If the leak is accurate and Destiny 3 just entered extremely early development in late 2025, a realistic release window would be 2029 or 2030. Early development typically lasts four to five years before a game launches.
Will Destiny 3 be a PS6 launch title?
Destiny 3’s rumored 2029-2030 release window aligns with the expected PlayStation 6 launch. Industry analysts speculate it could become a tentpole exclusive for PS6, giving Sony a major franchise to drive console sales.
Why is Destiny 2’s player count so low?
Destiny 2’s Steam player count dropped over 80 percent since Edge of Fate launched in June 2025. The expansion received harsh criticism for thin content, controversial system changes, and a story that failed to capture The Final Shape’s magic.
Will Destiny 2 items carry over to Destiny 3?
Previous leaks suggested Destiny 2 items might carry over into Destiny 3, but nothing is confirmed. When Destiny 2 launched in 2017, only character appearance transferred from Destiny 1, which frustrated many players.
What is Marathon and how does it affect Destiny 3?
Marathon is Bungie’s extraction shooter scheduled to release before March 31, 2026. It’s currently the studio’s main focus, and its success or failure will significantly impact confidence in Destiny 3.
Who is Colony Deaks and are they reliable?
Colony Deaks is a Destiny leaker and dataminer who has shared accurate information about Destiny and Marathon in the past. Multiple gaming outlets have verified their previous leaks, giving them credibility in the community.
Has Destiny 2 ever had lower player counts?
Yes, during the Curse of Osiris expansion in 2017-2018, player counts were so low that Bungie reportedly said the game was weeks from shutting down. Current numbers have now fallen below even that crisis point.
Conclusion
The timing of the Destiny 3 leak is both hopeful and desperate. Hopeful because it suggests Bungie hasn’t given up on the franchise despite Destiny 2’s collapse. Desperate because player engagement is at historic lows and the franchise needs a reset that won’t arrive for four or five years. The question is whether Bungie can keep Destiny 2 alive long enough for Destiny 3 to matter. With Marathon launching in 2026, layoffs gutting the studio, and community trust at rock bottom, Bungie faces an uphill battle on all fronts. Sony bet 3.6 billion dollars that Bungie could deliver successful live-service games. So far, that bet hasn’t paid off. Destiny 3 might be the franchise’s last chance to prove it still has the magic that made Destiny 1 and early Destiny 2 so compelling. But extremely early development means years of waiting, and the Destiny community is running out of patience. Whether there’s still an audience left by 2029 or 2030 depends entirely on what Bungie does with Destiny 2 and Marathon between now and then.