Every few months, the Half-Life community goes through this. A leak surfaces, speculation explodes, and everyone starts asking if this is finally the year Valve announces Half-Life 3. But this time feels different. xPaw, the highly credible creator of SteamDB, just mentioned finding a suspicious Source 2 AppID that’s not publicly available. And that’s just the tip of an increasingly convincing iceberg.
For context, xPaw isn’t some random internet sleuth making wild guesses. He’s the person behind SteamDB, the most comprehensive database tracking everything happening on Steam’s backend. When he says something is suspicious, people listen. The discovery of a private Source 2 AppID means Valve is working on something using their latest engine, and they’re keeping it under wraps. The question is what.
The HLX Project Is Real
Before diving into xPaw’s discovery, you need to understand HLX. This is the internal codename Valve has been using for an unannounced Half-Life project, and credible insiders like Tyler McVicker have been tracking its development for years. Unlike previous Half-Life rumors that turned out to be nothing, HLX has left concrete evidence in Source 2 engine updates, datamined files, and internal references.
Reports from August 2025 suggested HLX entered the final phase of development. Tyler McVicker, who runs Valve News Network and has a proven track record with Valve leaks, confirmed that recent Source 2 updates contained direct references to Half-Life mechanics. One line of code specifically mentioned thumper machines used to drive away antlions in Half-Life 2. This wasn’t accidental. It was a deliberate nod to dataminers, essentially Valve’s way of saying yes, we’re working on this.
Even more convincing, another leaker named Gabe Follower reported that HLX reached the polishing and optimization stage, with developers already moving to other projects because the core work is finished. In May 2025, reports indicated the game was playable end-to-end internally at Valve, meaning you could start at the beginning and play through to the end. That’s a huge milestone that suggests the game is real and progressing toward completion.
What xPaw Found
Against this backdrop, xPaw’s discovery of a suspicious Source 2 AppID becomes much more significant. An AppID is basically Steam’s internal identification system for every piece of software on the platform. Games, DLC, demos, and even internal tools all get unique AppIDs. When something appears in Steam’s backend with a Source 2 tag but remains private and unlisted, it means Valve is actively developing something they don’t want public yet.
This isn’t the first time xPaw has found hidden Valve projects. Back in February 2025, he and Reddit user Stannis_Loyalist discovered an unidentified Valve game that appeared on Steam in late January. That discovery sparked weeks of speculation before people moved on. But the fact that new suspicious AppIDs keep appearing suggests Valve has multiple projects in various stages of development.
The timing matters too. xPaw made this discovery in mid-November 2025, just as Half-Life hype reached fever pitch due to other converging evidence. Either Valve is playing with the community’s emotions, or something real is about to happen.
The Unlisted Steam Game
Here’s where things get really interesting. If you go to Valve’s Steam developer page and look at their Upcoming Releases section, you’ll notice something strange. The page says there are five upcoming products, but only four are actually listed. Deadlock, Valve’s third-person shooter currently in early access testing, accounts for one. The other three are various updates and projects that are publicly known. But that fifth slot? Completely hidden.
No title. No artwork. No description. Nothing. Just empty space and a counter that confirms something exists. This discovery was made by a ResetEra user and quickly spread across gaming communities. For Valve to have an entirely unlisted game sitting on their own platform suggests they’re preparing for something but aren’t ready to show their hand yet.
Combined with xPaw’s Source 2 AppID discovery, the evidence points to HLX being much further along than most people realize. Valve doesn’t list unreleased games on Steam unless they’re in late development stages. Store pages need to be configured, age ratings need to be applied, and backend infrastructure needs to be set up. All of that takes time and isn’t done for projects that might get canceled.
The Source 2 Engine Updates
Tyler McVicker has been breaking down recent Source 2 updates for months, and the features being added paint a clear picture of what HLX might include. The engine now supports advanced physics systems capable of tracking buoyancy, flammability, fluid dynamics, and sound properties that change based on an object’s condition. This is way beyond what Counter-Strike 2 or Deadlock need, suggesting it’s being developed for something else.
One of the most exciting additions is a new NPC mood system. Instead of canned responses and simple gestures, NPCs will react dynamically to what they see, hear, and apparently even smell in their environment. This would be a massive upgrade from Half-Life 2’s already impressive AI, making the world feel more alive and responsive to player actions.
The updates also include dynamically adjustable navigation meshes, allowing NPCs to navigate around destructible environments in real-time. If you blow up a wall and create a new path, enemies can immediately adapt and use it. There’s even code suggesting a randomized item placement system similar to Left 4 Dead’s director, meaning each playthrough could be slightly different.
These aren’t small tweaks. This is foundational work for a complex single-player game with sophisticated AI and environmental interaction. Basically, exactly what you’d expect from Half-Life 3.
Friends and Family Testing
Multiple sources have confirmed that Valve began friends and family testing for HLX around September or October 2024. This is the stage where Valve employees give early builds to people they trust to get feedback outside the development bubble. It’s not a public beta. It’s not even a closed alpha with sign-ups. It’s extremely limited testing with people who have personal connections to Valve staff.
The fact that this testing started nearly a year ago and the project is still moving forward is encouraging. Valve has killed plenty of games after friends and family testing. Half-Life 2: Episode Three famously got far into development before being scrapped. But HLX has survived that critical evaluation period and entered polishing stages, suggesting Valve believes in what they’re building.
Tyler McVicker emphasized that while he can’t confirm an announcement date, the testing and engine updates indicate HLX hasn’t been rebooted or restarted. That’s huge. Valve is notorious for canceling projects or fundamentally changing them midway through development. The continuity of HLX development suggests they’ve locked in on a vision and are executing it.
Why This Time Feels Different
Half-Life fans have been burned before. Remember when Half-Life 3 trademark filings sparked hype, only to lead nowhere? Or when concept art leaked and turned out to be from canceled projects? The community has learned to be cautious, and rightfully so. But the current evidence isn’t based on easily misinterpreted trademarks or dubious art leaks.
We’re looking at consistent, verifiable backend data. Steam databases don’t lie. Engine updates are real and publicly visible to anyone who knows how to datamine. Multiple credible sources with proven track records are saying the same things independently. xPaw doesn’t speculate wildly. Tyler McVicker backs up his claims with code samples and technical details. Gabe Follower has broken accurate Valve news before.
The timeline also makes sense. Half-Life: Alyx released in March 2020 to critical acclaim, proving Valve still knows how to make Half-Life games. The team behind Alyx openly discussed wanting to continue the series. Five years is a reasonable development time for a major AAA title, especially one as ambitious as Half-Life 3 would need to be.
When Could We See An Announcement
If HLX is real and nearing completion, when would Valve announce it? The Game Awards in December 2025 would be the perfect stage. Geoff Keighley has close ties to Valve and has featured their announcements before. A Half-Life 3 reveal at The Game Awards would break the internet and give the show its biggest moment ever.
Alternatively, Valve could do their own announcement outside of any major event. They don’t need third-party stages. A simple blog post on Steam or a surprise upload to their YouTube channel would generate just as much attention. Valve has never played by traditional marketing rules, and there’s no reason they’d start now.
Some insiders suggest early 2026 is more realistic for an announcement, with a potential 2027 release. That would give Valve time to polish, market properly, and build hype without rushing. But given how long fans have waited, even a 2026 announcement with a 2027 release would be celebrated.
The Elephant in the Room
Let’s address the skepticism. Even with all this evidence, there’s a chance HLX isn’t Half-Life 3. It could be a Half-Life: Alyx sequel, a standalone expansion, or something entirely different using Half-Life mechanics. Valve has never officially confirmed what HLX is, and they’re notoriously secretive about projects until they’re ready to ship.
There’s also the possibility that despite being playable end-to-end, Valve could still cancel the project. They’ve done it before with games that were much further along. Until Gabe Newell stands on stage and says the words Half-Life 3, nothing is guaranteed.
But at this point, the evidence is overwhelming that Valve is working on a major Half-Life project in advanced stages of development. Whether it’s called Half-Life 3, Half-Life: Something Else, or just goes by HLX, it’s happening. And xPaw’s discovery of that suspicious Source 2 AppID is just one more piece of evidence in an increasingly convincing puzzle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is xPaw and why does his discovery matter?
xPaw is the creator of SteamDB, the most comprehensive database tracking Steam’s backend infrastructure. He has direct access to Steam’s database structure and has accurately leaked and tracked Valve projects for years. When he identifies something suspicious, it carries significant credibility because he’s working with actual data, not speculation or rumors.
What is a Source 2 AppID?
An AppID is Steam’s internal identification number for every piece of software on the platform. A Source 2 AppID specifically indicates a project built using Valve’s Source 2 engine. When an AppID exists in Steam’s backend but remains private and unlisted publicly, it suggests active development on an unannounced project that Valve doesn’t want revealed yet.
What is the HLX project?
HLX is the internal codename Valve has been using for an unannounced Half-Life project. Evidence from datamined Source 2 updates, insider reports, and backend discoveries strongly suggest this is either Half-Life 3 or a major Half-Life game. Reports indicate it’s been in development for several years and reached playable end-to-end status in mid-2025.
When will Half-Life 3 be announced?
There is no official announcement date. Speculation points to either The Game Awards in December 2025 or early 2026 as potential announcement windows. However, Valve has never confirmed any timeline, and the company is notorious for taking as long as needed to ship games they’re satisfied with.
Is the unlisted game on Valve’s Steam page Half-Life 3?
Valve’s Steam developer page shows five upcoming products but only lists four publicly. This strongly suggests Valve has a major unannounced project configured in Steam’s backend. Combined with all other evidence surrounding HLX, many believe this unlisted slot is Half-Life 3, but Valve has not confirmed what it actually is.
What new features might Half-Life 3 include?
Based on recent Source 2 engine updates, HLX appears to include advanced NPC mood systems that react dynamically to environmental stimuli, destructible environments with adaptive AI navigation, advanced physics including buoyancy and fluid dynamics, and potentially randomized item placement similar to Left 4 Dead’s director system. These features go far beyond what Valve’s other current games require.
Could HLX be something other than Half-Life 3?
Yes, it’s possible HLX is a Half-Life: Alyx sequel, a standalone expansion, or a different type of Half-Life project. Valve has never officially confirmed what HLX actually is. However, the scope of engine development and reports of it being a full-length playable experience suggest it’s a major mainline entry rather than a smaller spin-off.
Has Valve ever canceled games this far into development?
Yes, Valve famously canceled Half-Life 2: Episode Three despite it being well into development. The company has also canceled or indefinitely shelved numerous other projects over the years. However, the fact that HLX survived friends and family testing and moved into polishing stages suggests Valve is committed to shipping this one.
The Wait Continues
For Half-Life fans, hope is both a blessing and a curse. Every leak brings excitement followed by the crushing possibility of disappointment. But this time, the evidence isn’t just smoke. There’s fire. Multiple fires, actually, all pointing toward Valve working on something substantial in the Half-Life universe.
xPaw’s discovery of that suspicious Source 2 AppID is just the latest confirmation that Valve hasn’t forgotten about Half-Life. Whether we see an announcement at The Game Awards, sometime in 2026, or even later, the important thing is that HLX exists and development is progressing. After nearly two decades of waiting, Half-Life fans might finally get the sequel they’ve been demanding since 2007.
Until Valve officially confirms anything, take all of this with appropriate skepticism. But also allow yourself a bit of hope. Because if all these leaks, discoveries, and insider reports are pointing in the same direction, Half-Life 3 might not be a meme anymore. It might actually be real.