After nearly two decades of waiting, memes, and dashed hopes, Half-Life 3 might actually be happening. According to multiple industry insiders and prominent Valve dataminers, the legendary gaming company is still aiming to announce the long-awaited sequel before 2025 ends. If true, this would mark one of the most significant reveals in modern gaming history.
The latest wave of speculation comes from GabeFollower, a well-known Valve insider who previously revealed details about Deadlock before its official announcement. GabeFollower claims Valve is still targeting a 2025 reveal for Half-Life 3, which internally goes by the codename HLX. Adding fuel to the fire, Tyler McVicker, another credible Half-Life dataminer who famously leaked Half-Life: Alyx before its announcement, stated during a recent stream that he expects Valve to announce the game within two weeks.
The Steam Machine Connection
Valve’s recent hardware announcements have only intensified speculation. Earlier this month, the company unveiled three new products: the Steam Machine (a PC-console hybrid), the Steam Frame VR headset, and an updated Steam Controller. All three devices are scheduled to launch sometime in 2026, but Valve notably left something unsaid during those announcements.
Tom Henderson from Insider Gaming hinted during a podcast that a major game is coming in March 2026 that fans have been anticipating for years. He suggested this title could serve as a launch exclusive for the Steam Machine, giving Valve’s new hardware a killer app to compete against PlayStation and Xbox. The timing makes sense, given that Half-Life 2 launched alongside Steam itself back in 2004, helping establish the platform as a dominant force in PC gaming.
Evidence Mounting From Multiple Sources
The speculation isn’t just based on insider claims. Eagle-eyed fans discovered that Valve’s Steam developer page lists five upcoming products, but only four are publicly visible: the three recently announced hardware devices plus one game (likely Deadlock, which is in limited playtesting). This discrepancy has led many to believe the fifth unlisted product is Half-Life 3.
Mike Straw, senior editor of Insider Gaming, added more intrigue by tweeting that Valve isn’t done with big announcements and that something else is coming soon. Multiple other insiders who correctly predicted the hardware reveals also hinted at a fourth announcement that hasn’t materialized yet. Given the timing and circumstances, Half-Life 3 seems like the obvious candidate.
The HLX Project
For months, dataminers have been tracking references to a project called HLX buried within various Valve game updates. Back in February, a DOTA 2 update contained hints pointing to HLX being an internal codename for a new Half-Life game. By May, the same sources reported that HLX was being playtested internally and was playable from start to finish.
More recently, McVicker analyzed the October Counter-Strike 2 update and found new Source 2 engine systems and features that aren’t being used in any current Valve game. These additions include optimizations, improved sound simulation, liquid simulation systems, and automated resource cleaning processes. He believes these improvements are being developed specifically for HLX and represent a significant evolution of the engine since Half-Life: Alyx.
Why Now Makes Sense
Several factors align to make a 2025 announcement and 2026 release plausible. First, Valve itself revitalized interest in Half-Life with the 2020 release of Half-Life: Alyx, a VR-exclusive game that tied directly into the events of Half-Life 2: Episode 2 and set the stage for a proper sequel. Half-Life designer Robin Walker even stated there definitely wouldn’t be another 13-year wait between titles.
Second, November holds special significance for the franchise. November 19 marks the original Half-Life’s anniversary, November 16 is Half-Life 2’s birthday, and November 21 is six years since the Half-Life: Alyx trailer debuted. Any of these dates would be symbolically appropriate for an announcement.
The Announcement Strategy
Unlike most major game reveals that happen at events like The Game Awards or E3, multiple sources suggest Valve will announce Half-Life 3 in its own unique way. McVicker specifically shot down rumors about a Game Awards reveal on December 11, instead claiming Valve would simply drop the announcement via a single tweet, similar to how the company operates with most of its projects.
This low-key approach would be classic Valve. The company famously announced Half-Life: Alyx with minimal fanfare before dropping a full trailer. There’s also speculation that if Valve announces Half-Life 3, the release could follow relatively quickly, perhaps within weeks rather than months or years. This would mirror the Alyx strategy and prevent the hype cycle from spiraling out of control.
VR or Traditional Gaming
One lingering question is whether Half-Life 3 will be a VR-exclusive title like Alyx or a traditional first-person shooter. The fact that Valve confirmed it has no other VR titles currently planned suggests HLX is designed for traditional platforms, making it more likely to be a Steam Machine showcase title rather than a Frame VR exclusive.
However, given that the Steam Frame is designed to support both VR and non-VR gaming, some believe Half-Life 3 could be compatible across platforms. This would maximize the game’s audience while still serving as a flagship launch title for Valve’s new hardware ecosystem.
The Long Road to Three
Half-Life 3 has become gaming’s most famous piece of vaporware. Half-Life 2: Episode Two launched in October 2007, ending on a cliffhanger that has remained unresolved for over 18 years. A sequel was reportedly in development around 2013 but never materialized. Various leaks, rumors, and supposed confirmations have come and gone, with none panning out.
The franchise’s absence has spawned countless memes about Valve’s inability to count to three, given that many of their popular series including Team Fortress, Left 4 Dead, and Portal stopped at two entries. The jokes have persisted so long that some younger gamers have never experienced a new mainline Half-Life release in their gaming lifetime.
What Success Would Mean
If Valve does announce and release Half-Life 3, it would instantly become one of the biggest gaming events of the decade, potentially rivaled only by Grand Theft Auto 6. The game would face enormous expectations from a fanbase that has spent 18 years imagining what it could be. That pressure alone might explain why Valve has taken so long to commit to the project.
For the Steam Machine, Half-Life 3 would provide the exclusive software that differentiates it from simply building a gaming PC. Hardware needs compelling software to succeed, and few titles would drive hardware sales more effectively than a new Half-Life game. It could replicate the synergy that made Steam and Half-Life 2 so successful two decades ago.
Community Reaction
The gaming community’s response to these latest rumors has been a mix of cautious optimism and battle-scarred skepticism. Reddit threads and social media discussions show fans who desperately want to believe but have been burned by false hope too many times. Comments range from excitement to jokes about eating hats if predictions prove wrong.
Some fans have pointed out that the unlisted Steam product has been there for months, suggesting it might not be anything significant. Others note that Valve has never explicitly confirmed HLX is Half-Life 3, and it could be a different project entirely. The company’s notorious secrecy makes it impossible to verify any claims until an official announcement happens.
FAQs
When will Valve announce Half-Life 3?
According to insiders GabeFollower and Tyler McVicker, Valve is still targeting a 2025 announcement, potentially within the next two weeks from mid-November. However, nothing has been officially confirmed by Valve, and the company has a history of keeping projects secret until they’re ready to reveal them.
Will Half-Life 3 be a VR game like Half-Life: Alyx?
Most sources suggest Half-Life 3 will be a traditional first-person shooter rather than a VR-exclusive title. Valve confirmed it has no other VR titles planned for release, making HLX more likely to be designed for the Steam Machine rather than the Steam Frame VR headset.
What is HLX?
HLX is the internal codename discovered by dataminers in various Valve game updates. References to HLX have appeared in DOTA 2 and Counter-Strike 2 patches, with evidence suggesting it’s a playable game running on an upgraded version of the Source 2 engine. Most insiders believe HLX is Half-Life 3.
Will Half-Life 3 be a Steam Machine exclusive?
While Half-Life 3 could serve as a launch title for the Steam Machine in March 2026, it would likely also be available on Steam for PC rather than being a true exclusive. Valve’s business model relies on the Steam platform, so limiting the game to one piece of hardware wouldn’t align with their strategy.
Who are GabeFollower and Tyler McVicker?
GabeFollower and Tyler McVicker are well-known Valve insiders and dataminers with track records of accurate leaks. GabeFollower previously revealed details about Deadlock before its announcement, while McVicker famously leaked Half-Life: Alyx ahead of its official reveal. Both have been tracking Half-Life 3 development for years.
Why has it taken so long for Half-Life 3?
Valve operates differently than most game companies, allowing developers to work on projects they’re passionate about rather than mandating sequels. The company’s focus shifted to Steam, hardware development, and multiplayer games like Counter-Strike and DOTA 2. Half-Life: Alyx in 2020 reignited internal interest in the franchise.
What happened after Half-Life 2: Episode Two?
Half-Life 2: Episode Two ended on a major cliffhanger in October 2007. Valve reportedly worked on a sequel around 2013 that never materialized. The franchise remained dormant until Half-Life: Alyx in 2020, which connected to Episode Two’s events and suggested Valve hadn’t abandoned the story.
When would Half-Life 3 release if announced?
If announced in late 2025, sources suggest a release could happen in March 2026 to coincide with Steam Machine’s launch. Some insiders believe Valve might release the game within weeks of announcement, similar to how quickly Half-Life: Alyx became available after its reveal.
Conclusion
The convergence of credible insider claims, datamined evidence, new hardware announcements, and significant franchise anniversaries creates the most compelling case for a Half-Life 3 reveal that we’ve seen in years. Whether Valve actually pulls the trigger on an announcement before 2025 ends remains to be seen, but the pieces are certainly in place for it to happen. For fans who have waited 18 years since Episode Two’s cliffhanger ending, the next few weeks could finally provide the closure and continuation they’ve dreamed about. Of course, this is far from the first time Half-Life 3 rumors have reached fever pitch, so maintaining reasonable skepticism is wise. But if GabeFollower and McVicker are right, gaming’s greatest mystery might finally be solved before the year ends. One way or another, we’ll know soon enough whether Valve has truly learned to count to three.